KANSAS CITY, Mo. – The weekend is here – Let’s take a look at some precipitation stats and forecast for the weekend.

We are directly entering an excellent weather forecast for the weekend on this Friday evening in the big city! There is less than 5% chance of rain on Saturday, then the chance will drop to 20% on Sunday. Do we need rain? Well it depends if you have a garden or a lawn. We need about 1 “of rain per week right now to keep everything green, and that will go up to almost 2” of rain per week when it warms up a bit more.

The jet stream has retreated north and created the conditions for today’s 106 degrees in Bismarck, North Dakota. What did I just say? Yes, it was so hot. All last year, Kansas City didn’t even go above 94 degrees, so is that a sign of things to come?

US Sunday Forecasts

This map above shows the pretty calm Sunday weather, and look below when I zoom in:

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Sunday closer

There will be a very low flow at altitude. What I mean is the upper winds are around 10 mph at 10,000 to 20,000 feet elevation. If any of these showers or thunderstorms do form on Sunday, they will move slowly. This means that if you go under one, you can see a heavy downpour for 30 minutes. Most domains will be missed, and that’s why we’re only putting a 20% chance on Sunday.

Precipitation for the year is above average. Looked:

Annual rain

Annual rain

The weather model continues to cycle steadily, according to the LRC. The signature part of the model will take place between approximately June 12 and 18. In previous LRC cycles this has been quite active. What will this almost summer version of the LRC bring? We will discuss this next week as the model unfolds.

The LRC sets up in October, cycle, continues and lasts until the end of September or the beginning of next October. So, we are in the same pattern as the one put in place last fall. Take a look at the total precipitation totals for this year’s LRC:

Precipitation in this year's LRC

Precipitation in this year’s LRC

The precipitation total you see here, above, is the total from October to our current date. For this year’s LRC, Kansas City is just a little below par. This is a true measure of what this weather pattern has looked like since its inception last fall. We are getting just enough rain to keep it green. We are getting just enough rain to keep us from being in drought conditions. We had just enough rain and snow to keep us from having flooding. But, the big question will be, will it dry out this summer? I expect the week in the middle of the month to produce more severe thunderstorms. Overall, however, I have some concerns. If we only use what happened in the first 8 months of this year’s CRL, we will likely have near average precipitation this summer.

Now remember, 2 “of rain per week is what is really needed to keep everything lush and green. This is way above average precipitation. So we might be watering a bit soon, and some of you have already started to water.

Thanks for spending a few minutes of your day reading the Gabbing With Gary blog! Have a good week-end.

-Gary



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